Yes. If my guess goes write, China will be a democratic country by 2020.
Well !!! Firstly, let me acknowledge that I am no political expert. I do follow international news quite avidly but that’s about it. I have told this to a few of my relatives / friends and they have dismissed me outright. I still stick to my theory though 😉
Why do I say so?
It goes on some simple principles and precedents as stated below…
a) Need for Freedom is the biggest need and this will surface over the long run. The general public will realise that even though they can be exploited in a democracy also, it is in democracy that they stand the best chance of getting their own rights fulfilled. This will form a major force when a significant part of the population realises this. We are already seeing some signs I guess.
b) Human greed will ultimately triumph. Only in a democracy can a significant percentage of people comfortably swindle other people’s money. As long as power remains within few hands, they will either remain good or they alone can swindle. This would be a second important force because the greed to make a lot of money exists among many and those with the talent / skills would relish such an opportunity. I am not at all being cynical. I am looking at it as an independent observer (though myelf being a human 😉 ).
c) The Soviet Union did not survive. It had to give way to the need of many people wanting their due for the effort they put in. “Give according to capacity, take according to work” is a principle that cannot last how much ever we wish it survives. People will start defecting from the state and moving to other democratic countries that allow them the freedom and potential to uplift their standard of living.
d) A country so large will have so many views. Each person is different. If all are to stick to the same ideas, it is impractical. Each person would like to be heard and see his opinion respected. One can only keep everyone saying the same thing with a lot of force and using so much force costs a lot of money and resources and sometime sooner or later, the state will find itself unable to cope with this.
e) International capitalistic market forces would try to get democracy installed because that is when they can use their patents to make money and ensure that people dont reverse engineer their products and deny them the money they feel they deserve. They want all nations to sign treaties that help them make money and being sharks, keep swallowing the small fish and remain the ruler of the seas of market. Even political leaders of big democratic countries would feel the pressure from these forces to push for ‘democratisation of the world’. I can see that they already are doing so.
If I am not wrong, it was the greek philosopher Descartes who said that the world is run by only three forces, “Power, Pleasure and Religion”. I think he was quite right. Most people would desire these and what better system than a democracy to offer this.
One recent event shows further signs of this. The Nobel Peace prize being given to a person who speaks this language. He might truly have done very good work. I have no knowledge of that. China certainly did not like that as one would expect.
Please treat this as a purely academic statement. I am completely neutral to this issue. I am neither going to be happy nor sad if China becomes a democracy. I have nothing to gain or lose by this except probably for the fact that I can claim that I predicted this. 😉
I would conclude by saying just one thing. “Loka samastha sukhino bavanthu” which means “May the whole world be peaceful”.
Jai Hind !!!